The US-Iran conflict would probably be Bettors according to polymarkets!

Military tension in the Middle East enters the critical phase. While Israel intensifies its strikes against Iran, the markets can be kidnapped. The likelihood of an American shot is rising to new levels. This revival of volatility feeds on regional conflagration concerns, carefully monitored investors, especially in the ecosystem.

Polymarket flirts with 45 % before returning to 67 %

While climbing can lead to the overall war, the polymarket, the blockchain platform specializing in predictive markets, the open bet expects a military strike from the United States against Iran 1^er July 2025.

Here are significant facts:

• 45 % of the current probability of American armed intervention against Iran before July, according to polymarket 17 June;
• 67 % of the peak was recorded by 18 June this year;
• The total volume has been exchanged in the market: $ 6.59 million, making it one of the most active on the platform.

These data on the string show how markets now integrate geopolitical risk into their prices, even within the Blockchain ecosystem.

Diplomatic reports strengthen concern. Donald Trump left the summit g7 according to several sources because “Manage the Iranian crisis directly”.

The US President would mention the immediate evacuation of Tehran and a potentially global plan than a simple ceasefire, which makes it possible to worry about the main offensive strategies.

At the same time, the Chinese Embassy in Tel Aviv asks all Chinese nationals to leave Israel, a sign of very serious escalation on the international scene.

Nuclear agreement, diplomatic meeting … Other bets to follow

In addition to this disturbing increase in tension, other prediction markets feed on the debate. The Kalshi, regulated in the United States, reflects the bet 52,999 of the probability of 46 %that before the end of the year the nuclear agreement will be signed between Washington and Tehran.

The same site estimates a 41 % chance that the US delegation officially meets Iranian representatives until July.

Polymarket offers a second related market with a volume of $ 1.62 million, which within 31 December 2025 provides a probability of 51 % of the signing of the official agreement on the Iranian nuclear program.

This scenario would only be verified by a joint public announcement of both governments covering civil or military nuclear.

This increase in tension will trigger a debate on the connection between geopolitical events and market movements, as evidenced by Friday Bitcoin after the first Israeli strikes. If the US military option remains uncertain, its increasing probability in the prediction markets sends a clear signal. Thus, in the coming weeks, analysts and investors will be carefully examined to seek a potential change in the Middle East strategic configuration.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of the Toulouse and the Blockchain Consultant Certification certification holder and I joined the adventure of Cointribuna in 2019. I convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many economy sectors, committing to raising awareness and informing the general public about how the ecosysty developed. My goal is to allow everyone to better understand blockchain and take the opportunity they offer. I try to provide an objective analysis of messages every day, decrypt trends on the market, hand over the latest technological innovations and introduce the economic and social issues of this revolution.

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The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.